City blink first as Premier League mind games intensify

The season for psychological warfare is upon us at the top of the Premier League and Manchester City have blinked far too early by my watch. Alex Ferguson’s response to Patrick Vieira’s criticism of United’s decision to re-sign Paul Scholes was to lay down the gauntlet – I know who my money’s on.

First and foremost , you don’t knock Paul Scholes. Vieira’s suggestion of “weakness” really was unfathomable in light of the all-smiles-for-the-cameras Tevez spectacular on Wednesday night.

Both players were brought back for the same reason: to secure the title. The difference being that Scholes never lets you down.

St Carlos returned to save the day against Chelsea, and whilst a topless Samir Nasri, arms out-stretched with joy, is not exactly my idea of positive reinforcement, let’s not forget the power of a good hug to a man home from exile. Tevez’s talent is beyond reproach, his attitude is the problem, though both of those factors deal with cause when we should be talking effect.

Disruption

The issue here is disruption. For all the benefits of having such a player in your midst, his presence in the squad is potentially incendiary. Throw that in the mix with Mario Balotelli and well, there’s a Roman candle joke in there somewhere. Nervous energy will flicker in the pit of Mancini’s stomach and on the tip of Ferguson’s tongue – like he said: “ammunition”.

Which is why City have been so foolish to continue to attack especially after Mancini’s excellent ”United will win because they are strong’ opening shot regarding the Red Devils’ trip to Spurs. Vieira has destroyed an impressive foundation in trading the cryptic for the crude.

Everything is about to explode, and whether or not Mancini feels he and his side are capable of withstanding the mental intensity, he knows beyond all possible doubt that Fergie and his men can.

It will be the imposing figure in opposition rather than the lofty heights of success that will cast a shadow over City’s push to the summit.

Vulnerable

What is more, Mancini is incredibly vulnerable. A thoroughly impressive reputation now sits at least partially staked in two of the Premier League’s most unpredictable characters, Balotelli and Tevez. Not exactly Mount Vesuvius but dodgy ground you’d have to say. Balotelli is his man, Tevez his problem; both potentially ‘Mancini’s biggest mistake’ and a tarnished name.

The difference between first and second in football essentially boils down to ruthlessness. Ferguson, Mourinho, Guardiola, exhibits A, B and C. Which brings us to Scholes: calmness personified. Not only has he been there and done it all, he probably scored a screamer in the final. He adds vital composure to a team packed with youthful exuberance.

Scholes’ return was a no brainer for one simple fact: you just cannot buy that combination of technique, consistency, will and experience.

Not only that, United have another two of these priceless commodities: Ryan Giggs and Wayne Rooney. All three have not only proven they can win decisive games in an instant, but they can do it over and over.

In the last nine league encounters since losing 3-0 to Newcastle, Ferguson’s men have dropped points only to Chelsea, and the plus 14 goal difference in that time reflects United are getting back to their untouchable best.

Picked up the mantle

Rooney, a la Giggs and Scholes before him, has picked up the mantle of dictating the team’s more dynamic attackers – Hernandez, Young, Welbeck, Nani, and Valencia – and reaped the benefits of their boundless creativity in goals. It’s tried, it’s tested, it works. Just-press-play football.

United now have six games to secure the title before the Etihad derby. Of the teams they face, Everton, in 10th position, are the highest-placed side, and even that one’s at Old Trafford. The perfect sort of games to apply a formula: to contain, control and defeat sides one by one.

The point being that for Mancini and co, this is all uncharted water and rocking the boat is frankly the last thing they should be doing. What speaks loudest is performance on the park and Tevez-assisted late shows will go no way to destabilising the United machine.

There is an old notion that he who shouts the loudest believes the least in his cause and in light of this, I read Vieira’s comment ironically.

Drawing attention to the supposed “weakness” of one of Alex Ferguson’s decisions has simply exposed the difference in strength and stability between the two clubs.

City had to bring Tevez back and now they have to win the league; their weakness is defined by their desperation.
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By Chris Smith

Follow me on Twitter@cdsmith789 or click here to return to the homepage.

FA Cup quarter-finals/ Premier League predictions

This week’s set of predictions is poignant for me given the increased importance of        Everton’s fixture. Though a 12:45 kick-off is not the ideal time, Goodison Park is just the location to restore what had been a great run of form.

David Moyes’ apparent ‘a fall comes before pride’ philosophy will forever be a black mark against in my book but he is of course the sort of manager who can channel negativity.

Moving on to a less subjective, more wide-reaching approach, victory for Manchester United at vulnerable Wolves would open up a four-point gap over Manchester City with Mancini’s men facing an arguably-rejuvenated Chelsea in their next fixture.

With the Europa League done and dusted, things are just about to get fascinating and you can bet your bottom dollar that Alex Ferguson is delighted to have the chance to apply the pressure first.

Remember to play along if you can be arsed: one point for a correct result, two for a correct score.

Last week’s score: 4 (Worst so far)

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Saturday March 17, 2012

The FA Cup quarter-finals

Everton 3-1 Sunderland (12:45)

Well if anyone read my David Moyes article from earlier this week, you will know my feelings on this on already, but just to recap: Everton absolutely must win.

The performance has to be impressive also, and with Nikica Jelavic, Royston Drenthe but most importantly, Leon Osman, returned to the line-up, I expect plenty of chances for the Blues.

Sunderland will fight because of course there is an evident spirit there but Sessegnon’s absence through suspension will be key. I think he’s a fantastic player and without his ability to link the play, I see Sunderland being penned back as Everton try to right the wrong of midweek.

Jelavic is just the sort of striker a player with Osman’s vision requires to win a game. Fingers crossed.

Tottenham 3-0 Bolton Wanderers (17:30)

Despite Harry Redknapp’s lack of post-match dignity last week, I’ll admit that Tottenham deserved to beat Everton. And though their form has been really poor of late for a team that were talked about as title candidates earlier this season, if Spurs finish third and win the FA Cup, that would constitute a brilliant season.

Redknapp is a fantastic motivator and his side have so much quality on the ball and in the box that you can only anticipate goals against an admittedly improved though still decidedly woeful Bolton defence. Pacier, quicker in the mind, and far more clinical, I think 3-0 Spurs may actually be  an underestimate.

The Barclays Premier League

Fulham 2-0 Swansea (15:00)

Martin Jol’s side missed a chance last week. Villa were there for the taking and Fulham should have advantage.

A victory would have meant the Cottagers had taken 19 points from the last 21 available; that momentum would have made the visit of a confident Swansea a lot more straight forward.

The enormity of the gulf in resources between Brendan Rodger’s team and Man City really puts that victory in context so credit where it’s due. That said, Swansea are a pretty poor away side and cannot impose themselves like they do at home.

Fulham, the archetypal home side will build up enough pressure, and with Pogrebnyak and Dempsey up front, I really look forward to watching the highlights.

Wigan 1-2 West Brom (15:00)

I would have backed Wigan for three points here if they’d have got their just desserts from the Norwich game, but that opportunity lost  is indicative of their general wastefulness/ lack of composure in front of goal. I like Martinez of course, I mean everyone likes Martinez, but I take issue with this whole he plays’ the right way’ thing people say.

As far as I see it, he plays ‘the right way’ the wrong way in that any quick-paced, slick combination of ball retention and attacking should supplement a solid defence rather than compensate for the lack of one.

Take West Brom, for example. They are unlikely to lose this game as because Roy Hodgson places so much importance on the need to maintain shape and reduce risk.

Call it safe, call it boring, I say that savvy is probably more apt. Given the bags of attacking talent in Peter Odemwingie, Shane Long and increasingly James Morrison means they have a real chance of nicking any game, so I’ll take a punt on this one.

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Sunday February 18, 2012

The FA Cup quarter-finals

Chelsea 2 -0 Leicester City (14:05)

Even though Chelsea beat Napoli convincingly in the end, I wouldn’t say that convinced me. Watching that game, I was struck by a thought that is possibly lacing the dreams of Arsenal fans everywhere: imagine if they drew Barcelona in the quarters. Genuinely, I would expect an aggregate score line of something like 10-2.

The Chelsea of old would have swept the floor with Leicester but I expect the Foxes to compete in this game. Tuesday’s 3-1 win over Birmingham was a decent result and you always have a chance when there is a striker like Beckford up front (let me just stress as an Evertonian, I mean that on a strictly novelty basis given his cup record). Chelsea’s superior ability to defend and convert chances will be the difference.

Liverpool 2-1 Stoke City (16:00)

If I am painfully honest, I’d have to say that Liverpool are probably the best English cup side. For two reasons really: firstly (and obviously), they bloody win loads of them, and secondly, because their games are always fantastic: 5-4 vs Alaves, 3-3 vs AC Milan, 3-3 vs West Ham, and obviously 2-2 vs Cardiff recently.

Liverpool excel in the cup and an away quarter-final at Anfield is as close to a write-off as they come.

I don’t particularly rate this Liverpool side at the moment, but as the general performance and productivity of the squad has improved, I have simply channeled that cynicism into Stewart Downing and Jordan Henderson comments. If Stoke can nick a goal and employ those scandalous time-wasting tactics, they have a chance of a result.

My friend Stocky told me a statistic this week that I judge meaningful enough to form the last word, so here’s doing that justice. Liverpool’s record when they have started  Gerrard, Carroll and Suarez: played three, won three, scored 11.

The Barclays Premier League

Wolves 0 -3 Manchester United (13:30)

This is quite simply one the worst possible fixtures for Terry Connor and his side. I really fell sorry for him; the transformation in mentality, belief and momentum that is required is monumental, so his current failure to effect that is hardly a fair indictment. That said, fact is the raw material of the sports journalist and to that end, Wolves are a shaken, weak and beatable team at the moment, and Manchester United, well they want to win the league.

Stung by the lesson they were given for 180 minutes of their Europa League tie with Bilbao, I expect the Old Trafford title machine to find its critical gear. Wayne Rooney’s form has been outstanding but beyond his abundant natural ability, he has shown the sort of relentless desire and clinical efficiency that defines champions. Sub-standard defence vs ruthless attack. No contest.

Newcastle 2-0 Norwich City (16:00)

Newcastle’s unfortunate defeat to Arsenal contained lots of positives, the most important of which for me was the performance of Hatem Ben Arfa. I think he has been impressive all year but of late, has begun to work harder for the team.

He strikes me as the sort of player who can create a chance out of nothing and convert it easily – a godsend of an asset when you consider Newcastle’s two brilliant strikers Ba and Cisse.

Like I said previously, Norwich deserved to be beaten last week against Wigan and as I do not rate Roberto Martinez’s side whatsoever, the Canaries must be out of form as far as I can tell. Newcastle to get back to winning ways with the three said attackers t0 dominate.

By Chris Smith

Follow me on Twitter@cdsmith789 or click here to return to the homepage.

FA Cup Predictions

Having been away for a bit, I haven’t posted anything for a few days. What better way to get back in than the bloody FA Cup eh? Feel free to comment on any of the predictions I make, or offer predictions of your own, and look-out for an article on my visit to the Olympic Stadium in Berlin coming soon.

Last week’s score: 6

FA Cup fifth-round

Saturday February 18, 2012

Chelsea 2 – 0 Birmingham City (12:30)
Chelsea have been absolutely atrocious this season and their fans have every reason to be worried. Birmingham however have had a great year as Chris Hughton has further enhanced his good reputation. Priority may be important in this tie. Although they are still in the Champions League, the FA Cup is Chelsea’s only realistic chance of silverware for me and so I expect a decent showing. Birmingham however find themselves just two points off third place in the Championship with a game in hand, so are unlikely to favour another cup run after their own European adventure. Poor quality game I imagine, Chelsea to do enough.

Everton 2 – 0 Blackpool (15:00)
Everton have been fantastic in recent weeks and that is mainly down to the return of Steven Pienaar and Landon Donovan. The American plays his last game before heading back to the USA and so I expect another great performance. Cup-tied Pienaar’s absence will be a loss, but I expect Everton to perform well regardless. Blackpool have been great recently, and as an admirer of their side, particularly of Matt Phillips, I am glad to see them back up there. They will give a good account of themselves but a Johnny Heitinga-spearheaded Everton defence will keep them at bay.

Millwall 2 – 1 Bolton Wanderers (15:00)
I do not rate either of these sides at the moment and I expect a particularly dull game. Two consecutive defeats has somewhat derailed Bolton’s recent revival and an awkward trip to The Den is not exactly ideal for getting back on track. Millwall have been poor of late but despite that I anticipate a typically committed performance from them. They will just about deserve the win and I fancy them to nick it with a late goal.

Norwich City 3-0 Leicester City (15:00)
This game will be a real indication of how far Norwich have come. I expect them to hammer Leicester from start to finish and they will not be  flattered by this scoreline at all. Leicester have been inconsistently impressive but more consistently abject and they look devoid of the sort of spirit which is the lifeblood of Paul Lambert’s side. Norwich play some great football, their players are tremendously committed, and the Carrow Road crowd is one of the best in the league. An easy 3-0.

Sunderland 2- 1 Arsenal (17:15)
Sunderland get an immediate chance to avenge Thierry Henry’s late winner at the Stadium of Light last week, but this time they face an Arsenal side sapped of all confidence having been crushed 4-0 on Wednesday by AC Milan. Arsenal’s performance was an embarrassment that night and given Martin O’Neill’s well-reported man-management skills, I see Sunderland taking full advantage of that. If Sunderland get an early goal, there will be only one winner for me.

Sunday February 18, 2012

Crawley 1 – 2 Stoke City (12:00)
Despite Stoke’s mid-week defeat to Valencia, I anticipate Tony Pulis’ men being up for this one – not least because it was a home tie. Crawley will naturally will have a spring in their step, not just because the quarter-finals beckon but also because they are a buoyant, confident side these days. They will challenge Stoke all over the park, but Pulis will have prepared his team for this. Stoke can match anyone for work-rate on their day and will have sufficient quality in the final third to claim the victory.

Stevenage 0 – 3 Tottenham (14:00)
Tottenham are the best team to watch in the Premier League. Most people say Manchester City, but I have watched too many boring games of theirs to agree. Harry Redknnapp’s teams have always been great viewing and with the endless stream of talent at White Hart Lane, Tottenham have done their manager’s talent justice. Aside from ability, Spurs’ attitude is first-rate, they take no game lightly. Stevenage had a great win in mid-week away at Sheffield Wednesday and will prepare for the game confidently. Unfortunately for them, Spurs are just too good, simple as that.

Liverpool 3 – 1 Brighton (16:30)
After a week in which Liverpool and its staff have rightly been ridiculed, Kenny Dalglish and star striker Luis Suarez will be glad to get away from the media furore their mutually moronic behaviour caused. All that being said, Suarez is a great player and will undoubtedly score in this game. The apologies may serve to clear the air for Liverpool which could lead to the team playing with less pressure at home. If so, expect Liverpool to dominate the game over a thoroughly decent Brighton side who defeated Newcastle in the last round.

Premier League predictions

This week, there are 10 Premier League fixtures to look at, with five on Tuesday and five the day after.

I don’t suppose anybody really will, but if anyone wants to keep score and let me know what they have got, I might make a feature out of it in the future.

Remember, one point for a correct result, two for a correct score.

Last week’s score: 10

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Premier League

Tuesday January 31

Swansea 2-2 Chelsea 19:45
Tottenham 2-0 Wigan 19:45
Wolves 1- 1 Liverpool 19:45
Everton 1-1 Manchester City 20:00
Manchester United 2-0 Stoke City  20:00

Wednesday February 1

Aston Villa 2 – 1 QPR 19:45
Blackburn 1 -1 Newcastle 20:00
Bolton 2- 1 Arsenal 20:00
Fulham 2 – 2 West Brom 20:00
Sunderland 2- 1 Norwich City 20:00

Adrian Durham: A pawn in Joey Barton’s self-publicity game

Another day and yet another set of  Joey Barton tweets for the football community to chew over.

This time the self-absorbed Scouser has turned on the man who rescued him from the last set of football relationships he destroyed through the media, Neil Warnock.

Warnock signed Barton and made him QPR captain before his sacking last week, and following an interview in which he suggested his captain’s influence at Loftus Road was a negative one, Barton released a scathing, retaliatory attack.

Barton labelled Warnock “embarrassing”, accusing him of “blaming everyone but himself” and making “scapegoats out of others”, further twisting the knife by suggesting preparations for QPR’s crucial game with Wigam are the first time in a while the team has “actually [had] a plan and seem organised”.

Furthermore, Barton suggested that Warnock would do well to get another job if he told the truth about him and likened him to comedy manager Mike Bassett.

In short, the midfielder has acted like an idiot by not only kicking a man when he is down, but doing it to the manager who gave him a platform to re-establish himself.

He showed a complete lack of respect, both to Warnock and the QPR supporters who are presumably grateful for the job Warnock did.

He was also naive, clearly caught up in the popularity of his outbursts, and showed himself as far from the intellectual he purports himself to be, outmanoeuvred easily by Neil Warnock, who is by no means a Schiller or Shakespeare.

But, and this is a big but, it is important to point out, Barton is right: the way in which Warnock took his sacking was completely undignified.

The bitter pill for Warnock to swallow is not that he was removed from office too early, or that he wasn’t given backing, or even that nonsensical tripe that Twitter cost him his job; the cold, hard fact is the unavoidable truth that he can not cut it at the top level.

I am not going to patronise him in the way lots of people have and say that “he is a top, top Championship manager”, I will just face facts.

In his 30+ years as a manager, he has reached the Promised Land of the Premiership twice, and, to cut a long story short, he was relegated with Sheffield United then sacked at QPR.

Though he is frequently a breath of fresh air with his outspoken post-match interviews, tactically he is inferior to his Premier League rivals, and that is what has cost him.

Now I don’t want to imply support for Barton’s actions, merely agreement with some of his points.

I imagine he has alienated himself from QPR supporters and quite possibly some of the club’s existing staff including players.

Again, he has unnecessarily dug himself a hole to climb out of.

Yes he should be more careful with his words but the suggestion he had no right to say what he said is quite fascistic.

To deny a person the right to comment on his work, his colleagues, his industry etc is simply unacceptable and furthermore unrealistic in this day and age.

The old cliche of “what goes on in the dressing room stays in the dressing room” means nothing to me as a fan, what I care for is what goes on in public, and if Warnock is allowed to put his views across, then so is Barton.

I’ve also been listening to Adrian Durham on Talksport and naturally, he has adopted the anti-Barton stance, but naturally, I have adopted my anti-Durham stance.

It is quite simple really, and a rule well worth keeping in mind: whatever Adrian Durham says, instantly think the opposite.

Even a broken clock is correct twice a day, but put it this way, Adrian Durham can only aspire to the accuracy of the broken clock.

His opinion on matters such as this is so convoluted with his own bias that it is meaningless.

Durham refuses to analyse Barton with any degree of objectivity, like he does with most things, and that sets him apart from sports journalists of any merit.

The reason I mention Durham is that as I see it, he holds a wholly paradoxical position with regards to Barton.

Durham frequently calls for people to clamp down on Barton, to deny him the ability to air his views, to ignore him, condemn him, drop him, criticize him etc etc, whilst also devoting the majority of his shows to the QPR captain any time he takes to his Twitter.

It is clear that though Barton is no intellectual heavyweight, he is aware of consuming people like Durham into his media orbit, rendering criticism and praise all part of the same process of self-publicity.

Adrian, you are a pawn in Barton’s game, and you can not even see it.

If Barton’s words/ actions are so deplorable and so inane, then stop wasting our time by talking about them so much –  any fan can do that, you get paid to offer something different.

By Chris Smith

The modern culture of blame in the relentless pursuit of glory

Success breeds contempt

Football fans are a fickle bunch at the best of times.

Individually and collectively, we are all as biased, reactionary and single-minded as each other.

There is however one factor which increasingly divides today’s fans, at least in my mind, and that is success.

I recently read a book celebrating Alex Ferguson’s 25 years at Old Trafford written by Will Tidey, a journalist and United fan who was eight (if I remember correctly) when Sir Alex took over.

It struck me that Will’s team had been so successful during such a formative stage that it would undoubtedly have informed his entire experience of life as a youngster and so on into the rest of his life.

Key points of his adolescence would be marked by Premier League success, or Champions League glory, a Cantona chip or a Mark Hughes volley.

I compared it to how I had found supporting Everton from about 1993 onwards, with three stand-out seasons amidst tedious years of mediocrity and/ or failure all I had to cling to in the way of glory.

The ‘three stand-out seasons’ I refer to are the successful FA Cup run in 1995, finishing fourth in 2005, and making the FA Cup Final in 2009, and they represent the pinnacle of (but by no means the only) achievement for Everton in my lifetime.

I began to wonder how the huge difference between the success of mine and Will’s club would manifest itself in our attitudes towards football and our approaches to life in general, our expectations – even our journalism: could the cynical tone with which I give form to my thoughts be merely laced with the hereditary bitterness of the Blue?

It made me re-examine my expectations, understanding all too clearly that tales such as Will’s,  factual as they may be, appear to me as works of fanciful fiction such is their relation to the current expectations at Goodison Park.

Realistically the gulf is now insurmountable; the capitalisation of football has stacked the odds so far against ‘poor’ clubs that the competitive element is virtually non-existent.

In a time when football is afflicted with an insatiable hunger for accountability and blame, and with fervour for the instant gratification of hope and investment, I began to think of what would constitute pride for your average fan now that nobody really expects to win.

I find myself in the paradoxical position of bemoaning the lack of substantial investment which would allow Everton to seriously compete whilst simultaneously acknowledging that this may represent the death of the club as I know and love it.

Everton’s new signing Darren Gibson is a case in point.

When we finished fourth, or even the seasons we consistently finished in the top  eight, bringing in a player like Gibson would have been curious to say the least, depressing more accurately.

But to hold a similar view now would be to deny the clear changes in circumstances that have taken grip of the club, and to live in the (albeit recent) past.

And that is precisely my point: these endlessly vocal Blackburn protestors, the Arsenal fans calling for Wenger’s head, Everton’s Blue Union, Chelsea supporters ringing in to phone-in after phone-in baying for yet another managers blood – in short, these representatives of the modern culture of blame in the ruthless pursuit of glory, are all short-sighted, or rather blind-sighted,  consumed by photographic recollections of  past success: imagistic, unrealistic triumph.

Which brings me back to Will who sat in the stands for years and saw trophy after trophy arrive, as expected, year on year, and he struck me as one of the select few of the final lucky ones, the last fans to taste victory in its pure form, earned and deserved, before the money sullied and cheapened everything.

And I looked I suppose more objectively at the signing of Gibson, and at his debut at Aston Villa, to see how this scanned with my new-found realism.

The added impetus to pick an incisive pass, and sense of urgency in attack was a breath of fresh in consideration of the tediously fruitless passing-for-the-sake-of-passing we have exhibited of late; his through-ball for Tim Cahill a great sign of potential.

But am I really saying that in the age of corporate football, and quivering in the shadow of Chelsea and Manchester City’s respective billionaires, I am content with a half-decent performance from another club’s bit-part player who arrived at a knock-down price?

Yes, I suppose I am, in the same way that I am content with any little whisper of good news that may blow past Goodison from time to time.

The issue for me is expectation, and like I said, having grown up on a diet of relegation and mid-table obscurity, though my hunger for success is magnified, it is crucially focused into more realistic goals, all veritable indications of ‘success’ in my own terms.

Like bringing through an exciting young player, or having a manager to be proud of, or beating Liverpool, or winning a penalty shoot-out, or simply putting together a good run of form, or making a decent signing,

As I’ve already said, money has moved the goalposts so far for so many that success in terms of winning trophies is realistically only possible for the risk-assessed chosen few.

So I refuse to allow success to be the definitive, divisive factor it has become; success in British football relates to little more than positive reinforcement for those who need it least, a cheapened crowning glory to reinforce the divide.

Because when you think about it, Alex Ferguson is just one man, exceptional without doubt, but no more immortal than the rest of us, and though his legacy will commit the considerable achievements of his career to the permanence of football history, one day his side will fall as all great sides do, and the same for Manchester City, and even Barcelona and so on.

Maybe the bubble will burst and the wave will break, and football will come full circle again, revert to type and rebuild its reputation from scratch – well, we can only hope.

But then again, paraphrasing perhaps the most lovable champion of the underdog, maybe this time next year, we’ll all be millionaires.

By Chris Smith