New Premier League predictions

This is somewhat of a test post as I move over to the new blog – so anyone who has already read the predictions for this week, sorry to be a bother. Do take note however, this will be the new site for chrissmithfootballblog.wordpress.com – though I will send out a confirmation post if all goes well. Fingers crossed.

If this week’s predictions prove correct, the Premier League title will be all but secured as a Manchester United victory at home to QPR would pile tremendous pressure on rivals City to match their result at Arsenal.

Even if Roberto Mancini’s side triumph, I wouldn’t back them to mount much of a challenge, such is the unimpeachable nature of United’s dominant form.

A rare Friday game affords us the opportunity to watch the league’s best two over-achievers Swansea and Newcastle square off in a contest which showcases the top flight’s two most in-form players, Gylfi Sigurdsson and Papiss Cisse.

On to Saturday, we have an absolute must-win for Liverpool at home to Aston Villa. It really should be three points for Kenny Dalglish and his team, but I do remember saying the same about the Wigan game (it’s still funny).

Hot on the heels of Fergie versus Kean on Monday, Paul Lambert and David Moyes square off in one the Premier League’s frequent Glasgow on Glasgow managerial bouts as Norwich host Everton. Defeat to Stoke could prove Wolves’ dying cry if results go against them, and a resilient Sunderland entertaining a resurgent Tottenham promises to be one of the more exciting attacking fixtures of the weekend.

Last week’s score: Eight (17 in the last two weeks – not bad I reckon)
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Friday March 6, 2012

Swansea 1-1 Newcastle (16:30)
Two great sides, two managers who have earned masses of respect by establishing sides with both mettle and flair – as hard-working as they are entertaining. Though Rodgers will rightly be named manager of the year, Pardew really deserves credit for drumming up the sort of dedication and enthusiasm to enable consistency at St James’.

This match could go one of two ways: an end-to-end goal fest or a rather dull tactical battle. I fear the latter. Both teams can play but they can also break up and prevent, and given the afore-mentioned respect that follows each side around the country, I expect to see plenty of prevention in this one.

This game features two of this year’s top three performing goalkeepers in Michel Vorm and Tim Krul. Great keepers tend to raise their game against their own kind, so it will be interesting to see which one comes out on top.
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Saturday April 7, 2012

Sunderland 2-2 Tottenham (12:45)
Saturday’s early game pits Sunderland who got back on their feet impressively at Manchester City after the hefty blow of the FA Cup exit, against Tottenham who themselves look to have overcome being brought back down to earth and fourth place by Arsenal.

Last week against Swansea, Spurs finally scored the goals their fine general play has warranted to gain a 3-1 win – just the scoreline Sunderland seemed to have earned but for City’s late comeback. Both sides should be in confident mood which is perhaps the defining characteristic of the respective managers’ successful styles.

Tottenham are still looking a bit lax defensively and should give away a fair few chances, though the return to form of Gareth Bale, Emmanuel Adebayor and Rafael van der Vaart should earn them at least a point.
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Bolton 2-1 Fulham (15:00)
Owen Coyle was named Manager of the Month this week for a number of reasons, not least because his side won three of their four March Premier League games. That those victories came against QPR, Blackburn and Wolves, and have left Wanderers 15th as opposed to 20th, means you can hardly argue with the decision.

You would think that form would steer Bolton clear, but you’d be wrong. Such is the congestion at the bottom that Wanderers could be breathing down 16th-placed Aston Villa’s neck on Saturday night, a point behind as they’ll be with a win – or even staring bewilderingly at the table to find only stranded Wolves beneath them. Depending on results of course.

Victory is paramount and certainly possible. Though Fulham played well at Old Trafford in their last away match, they tend to take their foot of the pedal for this type of encounter. Bolton, the opportunists of this year’s relegation battle, should live up to that mantle with a tight victory.
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Chelsea 2-1 Wigan (15:00)
I sound like a broken record, and what is more, one of these new-famed Chelsea-haters, but despite Roberto Di Matteo’s impressive return since taking over as interim first-team coach manager, I do not rate his team at all. ‘The table never lies’ – yeah but the Champions League obviously does. Chelsea were fortunate to make it out of the group stages, fortunate to beat Napoli and yet more fortunate to beat Benfica.

The real test will come later this month when the Blues attempt to settle scores both at home and abroad with domestic and European semi-finals, whilst also making up five points to overhaul either Arsenal or Spurs in the race for fourth place. Personally, I’d give them no chance.

That is of course with the exception of winnable fixtures such as a home game with a relegation side like Wigan. The Latics are four unbeaten however and have won their last two. Though a trip to Stamford Bridge will inevitably be tough, it is frankly Wigan’s easiest of the next three with Manchester United (h) and Arsenal (a) to come, and so with Chelsea playing in midweek, Roberto Martinez could well be looking for three points. Chelsea. Just.
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Liverpool 2-0 Aston Villa (15:00)
Part of Liverpool’s success has always been the power of reputation – winning only a third of home games has calmed the impact. Kenny Dalglish has overseen Liverpool’s lowest ebb in my lifetime.

I won’t twist the knife however as history tells us Liverpool bounce back well, and whilst Dalglish has come in for justified flack, the difference between him and the players is that he’s won it all, and they still have to prove themselves.

If they have any strength of character and real value to a club like Liverpool, now at long last they must show it. Step forward one of the worst sides in the league. The similarity between Birmingham’s unthinkable slide towards the drop last season and Villa’s own must be galling in the minds of Villa supporters, particularly the (justifiedly) anti-McLeish ones.

I thoroughly expect a fairly comfortable Liverpool victory here, and depending on results beneath them, Villa could well be in the mire come Saturday evening.
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Norwich 0-2 Everton (15:00)
Everton’s last three games away at Swansea, Sunderland and then at home to West Brom have been incredible. In light of the fact that each of these games finished 2-0 to Everton, you may consider my prediction lazy journalism, and, well, fair comment I suppose, but I just have one of those feelings.

Norwich have struggled to find consistency in recent weeks but that really is the biggest criticism you can throw at them after an excellent season in which relegation has been a non-issue for them. From the bottom of League One to the middle of the Premier League in three years? Absolutely brilliant.

By normal standards, Everton have a huge squad to choose from, and even more in their favour, both the players in the starting 11 and those on the fringes are desperate to earn a place in the Wembley team to face Liverpool. This sort of attitude has enabled Everton to control every minute of the last three – I expect that to continue.
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West Brom 2-2 Blackburn Rovers (15:00)
Hodgson’s men were poor against Everton last week, but as I’ve mentioned, came up against a side at the peak of their powers. They usually bounce back well however so expect a decent showing from them here. Nine home defeats from 15 however reveals that Blackburn have a chance.

Steve Kean’s men looked safe a few games ago but the relegation renaissance that has seen victories earned left, right and centre for Bolton, QPR and Wigan, has pulled Rovers right back into the fold, and the drop zone after Monday’s defeat to Man Utd. There is a lot of goal scoring potential for either side, but also the occasional spate of defensive ineptitude. I’ll say 2-2.
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Stoke 3- 0 Wolves (17:30)
I really can see only one result here, the only issue is the margin. I’ll go for a bit of hammering given that Wolves are about as hopeless as hopeless can get just now.  The nosedive since Terry Connor took over is one thing, but the fact the side were pretty woeful before that just compounds their plight. There really is no way back.

Last week’s defeat to Bolton however cruel was decisive, and the psychological damage of such a loss cannot be underestimated. The last thing you need is a team like Stoke getting in your faces, not giving you an inch, and challenging all over the park from start to finish.

Though Pulis’ men have little to play for, they do have pride in their work, particularly at home. All anyone needs to beat Wolves at this time is a bit of momentum, and Stoke are well capable of producing that.
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Sunday April 8, 2007

Manchester United 3-0 QPR (13:30)
You just can’t argue with Alex Ferguson and Man Utd. A win here would mean an eight-point lead at the top with City having to win at the Emirates to give themselves even a cat in hell’s chance of the title. In the 12 games since losing to Newcastle, the only time United have dropped points was the 3-3 draw with Chelsea. Say what you like about City bottling it, that form is outstanding.

I have given lots of plaudits to Wayne Rooney, Phil Jones and Danny Welbeck this season but to be fair, it appears to have been Antonio Valencia and Ashley Young who have risen to the top of late. United are at the stage where they may as well work up a decent goal difference just in case, and these two players seem to offer the best hope in that regard.

Given their opponents are QPR, and yes, admittedly buoyed as they are by recent victories against bigger sides, United should have no trouble in achieving all of their objectives. Easy win.
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Arsenal 3-2 Manchester City (16:00)
This will be the nail in City’s coffin in terms of the title despite Arsenal’s defeat to QPR. I expect the game to be reminiscent of the Chelsea/ Arsenal, Arsenal/ Spurs matches from earlier in the season when you really thought there would be a goal from every attack.

Some of City’s self-styled efficiency has broken down and will continue to continue to do so in the desperate battle for points – so the game should open a bit. Which is precisely what you are looking for as an Arsenal-tilted neutral. City’s attack has looked pretty ragged in recent weeks but in fairness, this is that their first title push and that takes adjustment.

Arsenal’s defence has looked stable and secure of late except for at the weekend. The combination of Arsenal losing a seven-match winning streak’s confidence and City’s need for three points, means there will be chances for Roberto Mancini’s men and they have quality to finish. But so too do Arsenal and a victory would provide perfect fodder for Arsene Wenger’s pre-season pep talks next year. Should be a classic.
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By Chris Smith
Follow me on Twitter @cdsmith789

Wheels come off at the Etihad as City buckle under pressure

Victory for Manchester United away at Blackburn on Monday will not only condemn their North West rivals to the relegation zone for the first time in a month, it will intensify the pressure on an enemy much closer to home.

If last week’s 1-1 draw with Stoke represented a point gained, then Saturday’s 3-3 with Sunderland connotes two dropped, given Manchester City’s 20 consecutive previous league victories at the Etihad.

The facts explain that City were fortunate in getting anything at all, such was the application and co-operation of a Sunderland side that bounced back impressively from Tuesday’s FA Cup quarter-final replay defeat to Everton.

Nicklas Bendtner, for the first time in serving memory, gave the sort of performance that showcases not only his ability to dominate a defence, but his much more remarkable inability to dominate a defence consistently.

The Dane, a figure of pure frustration at times, showed his value with a deft header from Sebastian Larsson’s cross to retake the lead on the stroke of half-time, before returning the favour with a precise assist for the third.

Inadequacy

Five months ago, City’s defensive inadequacy may have been described as ‘careless’. Now it will inevitably form the basis of ‘clear sign of inexperience’ critcisms, and doubt in the minds of City’s players – such is the fever of the hour. Every mistake from here on in will strike hard – affirmation of the whispered fear that perhaps City’s valiant tilt at league triumph is doomed, at least for this year.

At a time when efficiency, consistency, the ruthless application of wisdom, and maturity is required, City are reactionary, hopeful and desperate, clearly guessing at a formula for success.

They are currently unable to cope with the pre-requisite obstacle-surmounting demanded of title challengers.

Even the latent structure of City’s believable dream – the unquestionable home form – has now been laced with doubt. Sunderland were a credit to themselves for getting both back in the saddle and firmly on the front foot after Tuesday’s collapse against Everton. Even so, they represent opposition a team with City’s ambitions and resources should be beating at all costs.

For the impact of the last two draws cuts far deeper than just four points dropped. During the critical moments of both games, City have been behind, in search of a lifeline – not exactly the sort of habit you want to form having surrendered not only the Premier League lead but three-quarters of a season’s momentum to their rivals.

Comeback

Victory in the next two matches against admittedly rejuvenated relegation candidates Blackburn Rovers and QPR would afford United the opportunity to strike the most forceful psychological blow so far.

The obligatory nature of the Red Devils’ late-season comeback does not make it any less impressive.

Just minutes after full-time at Old Trafford next Sunday, City could find themselves preparing to face Arsenal at the Emirates knowing that a victory would merely close the gap to five points with six games remaining.

Amidst the journalistic frenzy that characterizes this time of year, it is important to try to maintain perspective, and 46 home points from a possible 48 hardly smacks of a crisis. The point is about mood however – something far meaningful and tangible than statistics.

Weakness

From Patrick Vieira’s constant stream of nonsense, and Saturday’s on-field spat between Mario Balotelli and Aleksandar Kolarov, to the yet more unfathomably daft injury to Sergio Aguero which now threatens to bring Carlos Tevez right back into the fold, City express weakness and inadequacy with damning regularity at the minute.

Mancini, himself coolness personified so often this year, appears erratic, uncomfortable, verging on angry just now.

He is a man caught between the necessary critique and perhaps more necessary, subsequent defence of his under-performing players.

Victory at Blackburn would relinquish some of the psychological baggage of United’s trip to the Etihad, rendering City’s title push more hopeful pursuit than genuine challenge.

As Ferguson has cranked up the pressure with his carefully-chosen moments, and his side has backed that up with nine wins and a draw from the last 10, the wheels have certainly come off for City.  The next two fixtures will decide whether their title bid has been derailed completely.
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By Chris Smith

New Premier League predictions

If this week’s predictions prove correct, my beloved Blues will be above those wretched Reds in the table. Everton take on West Brom at home, whilst Kenny “I’m here all week” Dalglish’s confidence-drained side travel to Newcastle – a team with precisely the opposite experience just now.

Elsewhere, Manchester City have a real chance to turn up the pressure on Manchester United, by defeating Sunderland, and after the Black Cats’ gut-wrenching shambles of a non-performance against Everton, that should not be too difficult.

Arsenal should make it eight consecutive league wins as they face QPR which really would make next weekend’s home game with City that bit more exciting if that is possible.

As always, play along. Now that I have scored nine, the goal really absolutely must be 10, so you must aim for that as well. One for a correct result, two for a correct score. Like I mentioned previously, this score system is not just some meaningless thing I have invented to differentiate myself from Mark Lawrenson – oh hang on, I’ve read that wrong, it is precisely that.

Last week’s score: 9 (best ever)
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Saturday March 31, 2012

Aston Villa 0-2 Chelsea (15:00)

Aston Villa could really do with the season ending immediately – the atmosphere of the whole club is total negativity. They have enough quality to survive but require a galvanising team spirit to raise them further up. So dreadfully bereft of that as they are, Villa will inevitably struggle.

Roberto Di Matteo was fortunate to be handed four winnable games to start life at Stamford Bridge. That said, a draw at home to Spurs, late defeat at the Etihad, and victory away at Benfica since then ain’t too shabby. Chelsea have shored things up defensively conceding just five goals in seven games under the Italian, though up top, they really could with being a little more composed and clinical. Decent enough to beat a poor side. 0-2.
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Everton 2-0 West Brom (15:00)

Everton have lost only four of the last 21 games and though that record is impressive, the last two away performances against Swansea and Sunderland were better than the rest put together. Everton look rock solid defensively, and really threatening going forward.

The mood around Goodison has not been right all season. Expect that to change on Saturday. There’s no more special feeling for me as an Evertonian than clapping the boys onto the pitch after a week like this. The crowd will boost the players, we will be back to our old selves.

West Brom are an excellent side, and Roy Hodgson is one of my favourite managers. His balance between criticism and praise of players strikes me as complete honesty. Despite that, I don’t see them having much of a chance here even if David Moyes rotates his side as expected.
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Fulham 3-1 Norwich (15:00)

I hope Fulham strengthen the squad in the summer, not that they particularly need to – just because they are a really good side at the minute and Martin Jol has a fantastic eye for a player. A few good signings could really push them on. In Dempsey, Dembele and Pogrebnyak, Fulham have one of the most skilful, powerful strikeforces and I love to watch them play.

Jol’s men showed real steel against Manchester United which is not something you would readily associate with them, and so expect some residual confidence from that performance. As for Norwich – what was Grant Holt playing at getting sent off against Wolves? After my big build-up last, he looked all set for a hat-trick and then that? You daft sod!

I respect Paul Lambert’s men even as an away side – they will definitely compete in this game. Ultimately however, Fulham’s craftier types will earn the win.
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Manchester City 3-0 Sunderland (15:00)

This will be a deceptive result in the title race I think. The wheels are coming off for City at the moment. A fortunate draw away at Stoke, Patrick Vieira’s constant stream of nonsense, Aguero’s new injury, Tevez now appearing their main striking hope – not exactly the plain sailing you would expect of champions.

In spite of that, they will hammer Sunderland. Why? Because Martin O’Neill men are a team of average to decent players at best (Stephane Sessegnon apart) who improve their standards with co-operation, confidence and momentum. Well the balloon burst on Tuesday, and as a dominant Everton side ripped them to pieces, you could see the Sunderland players crumbling before your eyes.

With that game behind them, Sunderland have no hope this season, and psychologically, will look at breaking City’s great home record as something far beyond their means. City to win, Tevez to score.
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QPR 0-3 Arsenal (15:00)

QPR have no chance of staying up. They would if only they allowed themselves to compete, but the toxic combination of awful defending and an astonishing disregard for discipline, will expose Mark Hughes’ men for what they really are: a Championship side.

Arsenal on the other hand are brilliant at the moment. Seven consecutive league victories is good enough to reflect a team’s standing, not just their form. Wenger’s men have re-overtaken Spurs – I’m not talking about third place, I mean in terms of being the Premier League’s best attacking side. Nothing comes to mind in the way of a warning against tipping Arsenal, so I’ll tip them heavily. 3-0.
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Wigan 1-2 Stoke (15:00)

Credit where it is due, I have written Wigan off for a while, but five points from the last three games has given them the opportunity to survive. They have deserved those points too, passing well, attacking in numbers, and defending with more sense.

They do however give away a fair few chances and it seems like all it would take for the Latics to be punished is a confident striker with some decent service. Cue Peter “Jesus christ, what a goal!” Crouch and his merry band of supply-merchants. Wigan to play well but carelessly, Stoke to nick it.
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Terry Connor must think: ‘if we don’t win this one we’re doomed’. I say ‘Terry Connor’, I really mean myself. Defeat would leave Wolves effectively eight points behind Bolton, whereas a victory would close the gap to just a point.

I expected a Bolton defeat last week but it seemed that the Fabrice Muamba situation helped them gain a vital victory. I was not particularly impressed with them, but that wasn’t really the point of the day. As for this one qualitywise – don’t hold your breath. That shouldn’t stand in the way of a good game however, and with both sides’ as deeply-plunged into the relegation abyss as they are, expect a real battle.

Wolves to claim a valuable first three points for the boss.
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Sunday April 1, 2012

Newcastle United 0-5 Liverpool (13:30) (April Fools!)
Newcastle United 2-1 Liverpool

I frequently sing the praises of Alan Pardew and his team, so they could at least have the decency to beat Liverpool, and give Everton a chance to go above them in the table. Newcastle’s last outing at West Brom showcased why they are such a dangerous side. Cisse, Ba, and Ben Arfa mean chances and goals, simple as that.

How Liverpool have lost to perhaps the worst two Premier League sides in recent weeks is mystifying – it’s bloody hilarious and mystifying. The Reds will respond, no doubt about that, but a tough game against a Newcastle side overflowing with confidence and “champagne football” as Pardew put it, will come just a bit too early. Narrow victory earned by Cisse.
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Tottenham 2-0 Swansea (16:00)

Spurs really need to get back to winning ways. A season that has started so promisingly could yet end miserably, though they can to remedy that with some consistent league form and an FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea. Redknapp’s men have been really unlucky of late and are much better than their lull suggests.

Swansea were second best in every department at home to Everton last week and really did not look like threatening at all. Though the Toffees were on top form, Brendan Rodgers will have expected more of his players. Superior quality with previal in this one as Spurs will dominate the game and buck their wasteful trend.
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Monday, April 2, 2012

Blackburn Rovers 0-2 Manchester United (20:00)

Considering they have fought relegation all year, Blackburn are a really decent side. They have two great strikers in Yakubu and Junior Hoilett, and there has been an evident spirit there throughout

Even though Fulham defended well, Manchester United should have scored more last week to reduce the goal difference. That said, the performance was encouraging. For the first time this season, United are the best side in Manchester.

Victory rather than defeat to Blackburn back in December would see United six points clear – the least they can do is amend that. I expect a mechanistic win, not particularly impressive, but a vital three points all the same.
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By Chris Smith
Follow me on Twitter @cdsmith 789

Toffees hark back to Moyes’ heyday with dominant victory over Swansea

Everton’s 2-0 victory over Swansea was not only the side’s best outing of the season, it was the timeliest possible reminder of the Moyes-era heyday when guts and determination allowed quality to flourish.

Without hyperbole I can state that Everton should have beaten the scintillating Swans by at least four. Nevertheless, David Moyes responded to recent criticism with a tactical masterclass to create tremendous momentum heading into Tuesday’s FA Cup quarter-final with Sunderland.

Leaving the Arsenal game in midweek, disappointed, I turned to my dad and said: “You know what the difference is: they used to play every game like a cup final, every single game – I don’t believe that they care the same way any more”. His response: “It’s not that they don’t care, I think they just had hard lines.”

And as Everton chased Swansea down from minute one and occupied the spaces on the Liberty Stadium pitch which so-often enable the slick passing that has characterized the Welsh side, I have to say humble pie has never tasted so good.

When the time was right, the Toffees switched gear and overpowered their opponents with a dominant attacking display, becoming the only side to outclass Swansea on their own patch this year – a considerable feather in the cap.

Quirk of fate

It really was the sort of dumbfounding quirk of fate that makes you just love football. Brendan Rodgers’ form side had won the previous three Premier League’s games without conceding a goal. Everton inversely, seemed to have surrendered the initiative with back-to-back defeats to Liverpool and Arsenal.

Yet all the gut-wrenching flaws in Everton’s poor showing this year were amended in a flash as if by magic. Recent problems with concentration, intensity, movement, ball retention, end product, and finishing were all eradicated magnificently.

The shackles of passing-for-the-sake-of-passing and Moyes’ natural reservation were cast off as Everton outperformed their high-quality opponents all over. As skill backed up strength, cohesion set the tone.

The Evertonian prayer for Leighton Baines and Steven Pienaar to rekindle the most productive of partnerships was answered beyond the boundaries of all genuine hope. In the way of a summary of the pair’s poor showing at Arsenal: very wasteful in possession. Well that was then and this is now because both were sensational against Swansea.

With a bit of luck in the next few games, Baines’ strike will be remembered as ‘the goal that won the cup’ such is the lift it could give the side. For the duo to combine so effectively so quickly is both testament to their understanding and a source of real hope for the rest of the season. Well actually, it is and it isn’t.

Confidence

The Toffees’ hopes this season are invested solely in the FA Cup. This Tuesday’s replay with Sunderland arrives at the perfect time in terms of the confidence this win will breed. But the fact is Pienaar is cup-tied and this could be crucial. Though probable replacement Royston Drenthe has performed well – or at least been less frighteningly erratic in the past few games – I’ll draw upon the meta-analysis of Evertonianism to explain the difference.

When the Blues are on top form, there are momentary nuances of sheer brilliance that send us into raptures. For instance, when Baines threads a through-ball back-heel having played a one-two,  you know he’s on his game.

Similarly, when Pienaar nonchalantly stands still for five seconds waiting for the right pass, there is a feeling in your bones. The South-African was man of the match in Everton’s match of the season – his value cannot be understated.

Although his absence will hit Moyes’ side hard, that is frankly the only negative they take into Tuesday. Those ‘momentary nuances of brilliance’ were visible throughout.

A case in point: Maruoane Fellaini (who let’s not forget arrived as a substitute – which is a tangential bonus in itself regarding the state and size of the squad) so often frustrates with carelessness. Forcing his way past Swansea’s Ashley Williams in a typical fashion, this time creating the opportunity for victory – so often his shortcoming.

In handing Nikica Jelavic the simple chance to kill the game off, the Belgian vindicated what has been a thoroughly decent run of form. As an aside, the Croatian’s clear desperation to receive Fellaini’s bears all the mark of a goal scorer.

Satisfaction

Mixed in with reactionary joy at the win was the added satisfaction of feeling as if everything is finally as it should be – we know what this side can do and at last they have shown us. Victories over Manchester City, Chelsea and Tottenham of late were impressive, but make no mistake, the Swansea performance made me feel proud again.

One particular moment struck me as Johnny Heitinga absolutely tore down the touchline late on to secure possession in the final third – gaining around five yards on his marker to do so.

To see a player of Heitinga’s previously-dubious commitment really busting a gut for the side put me in mind of my dad’s comment, and well, the old man must know a thing or to.

Against Spurs, Phil Jagielka was brought on to play as a third centre-back and secure the game. Heitinga was introduced to similar effect against Swansea, though I read Moyes’ substitution as practice for the possibility of leading late against Sunderland, and therefore, a real savvy move from the boss.

Righting the wrong

The team selection against Liverpool will forever be remembered as the only time Moyes really gave in as far as I’m concerned, but the manner of Saturday’s victory will go a long way to righting that wrong.

The squad looked tip-top on Saturday – Phil Jagielka’s excellent performance  complementing fellow centre-halves Heitinga and Sylvain Distin who are in the form of their lives for the club. Also, Darren Gibson’s positive return will bolster resources.

The key for Everton over the next few weeks will be Nikica Jelavic, who, though careless at times against Swansea, fulfilled a vital role – one that stands Everton in great stead for the replay.

The Croatian’s sharpness up-front will offer essential solace from the inevitable Mackem onslaught. His ability to finish, refined after Saturday’s heroics, could just about get us to Wembley.

So hats off Davey, it was one of your best.
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By Chris Smith
Follow me on Twitter@cdsmith789 or click here to return to the homepage.

Premier League predictions

As you may have noticed, I have played around with the old site design and I have to say: what an excellent way to spend your time that is. I hope it improves the overall experience, the sidebar to the left should makes things more straightforward anyway. Enough about that, to matters at hand…

My biggest tip for this weekend’s Premier League action is to keep an eye out for Arsenal. They were brilliant against Everton in midweek – the character and efficiency showed will seep out in the form of confidence now they’ve earned respect.

The Gunners’ opponents Aston Villa may be well-rested and coming off the back of a victory, but form is temporary and well, Villa are hopeless so I expect a hammering.

Aside from that game, well Tevez obviously. City’s late kick-off with Stoke will be a real test of the side in general, as well as the Argentinian’s own potential value to the team.

It’s hardly sticking my neck on the line I know, but you wouldn’t be surprised if he nicked the winner, would you?

Liverpool (I’m still laughing) will hope to get the hilarious QPR defeat out of their system and should view Wigan as ideal fodder for a pummeling of their own. Remember: one point for a correct result, two for a correct score.

Last week’s score: 5 (Must do better)
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Saturday March 24, 2012

Chelsea 2- 2 Tottenham (12:45)

In spite of Tuesday’s Champions League quarter-final with Benfica, Chelsea ought to have restored enough pride by now to compete in this London derby. Spurs were unlucky against Stoke, and against Everton, against everyone they don’t beat basically, but you cannot deny a clear lack of killer instinct in recent weeks.

Gareth Bale has however played a lot more like his best during Wednesday’s draw and he should carry that on in this game. So too should Luka Modric who could so foolishly have left for Stamford Bridge last summer. Chelsea’s big performers should be up for another hard shift but I think they will be fortunate to escape with a point.

Arsenal 3-0 Aston Villa  (15:00)

Arsenal’s defence stood impressively firm against Everton on Wednesday night and the whole side played with the sort of solidity and togetherness that is a natural by-product of winning games.

The possibility of robbing Spurs of third place could have had an all-too predictably detrimental effect on confidence. Take it from me as an Evertonian, it had a visibly positive effect on them – they were outstanding.

Updating that comment slightly, if Chelsea beat Spurs in Saturday’s early kick-off, Wenger’s men will prepare themselves for the trip of a poor  completely rubbish Aston Villa side knowing victory will open up a four-point gap over their rivals. No contest.

Villa are lucky they have the points on the board. Wasn’t it only last season people were saying about an Alex McLeish side ‘yeah they’re bad but surely they won’t get sucked into a relegation battle’? I expect them to get battered and Arsenal to be back to their fluent best.

Bolton 1-2 Blackburn Rovers (15:00)

Obviously attention will be drawn to the Fabrice Muamba situation but that could really go one of two ways so it’s best not to speculate – I’ll just stick with form.  Blackburn have been excellent in the last two games and have steered clear of relegation as far as I’m concerned.

If I’m right, expect to see Rovers play with even greater freedom and confidence which can only mean good things for a team that boasts one of the best strikeforces in the league at the minute. Saturday’s game with Bolton could mark a real change in momentum and fortunes at Ewood Park.

December’s home defeat to Wanderers left Blackburn bottom of the league with 10 points from 17 games. Victory at the Reebok would mean Rovers have accumulated 21 points from the next 13 leaving them as close to Swansea in eighth as relegation would be to them in 16th. Regained confidence will allow superior quality to prevail – Blackburn for me.

Liverpool 3-0 Wigan (15:00)

Liverpool were really complacent in midweek, missing far too many ch – oh I can’t do it! That was one of the funniest things I’ve seen in ages! How they lost that game I’ll never know.

But seriously, the defeat ought to jolt a pretty average but capable Liverpool side into life and Wigan make perfect opponents for that task. On a side note regarding Sebastian Coates’ contribution – goal of the season so far.

The Latics failure to win either of the last two against Norwich and West Brom sends out the worst possible message. If effectively says ‘look, we’re not going to beat you so you may as well have a go’.

Liverpool are way off top four standard but have been incredibly unlucky on many occasions – naturally that luck, particularly their home form has to change some time.

Luis Suarez has done everything but score recently including staying on his feet once or twice, and he is only ever one goal away from top form. My tip: Suarez to score two.

Norwich 2-1 Wolves (15:00)

Wolves’ performance against Manchester United was the sort of woeful, clueless display that only makes you sympathise with supporters. Everyone has been there at one time or another and unfortunately for Terry Connor’s men, now, at the most crucial time, all the positive factors of their play have been drained in place of rapidly-transmittable fear.

I had accused Norwich of being a bit off the boil over the past few games, and though defeat to Newcastle bore several of the same traits, there was a lot in that performance for Lambert’s men to be proud of. Finishing was to blame for not claiming at least a point – expect that to be put right against a Wolves’ side gifting plenty of chances.

One of my favourite parts of Match of the Day each week is the anticipation that accompanies Grant Holt rising to meet a header in the box. Surely he can outwit such a  fragile defence to set up a victory for his side.

Sunderland 3-1 QPR (15:00)

Both sides were fairly poor in midweek, each conceding two goals (though only one side won 3-2 – sorry lads, had to) but that’s about the only thing that puts this Sunderland side in a bracket with Mark Hughes’ QPR.

Defensively, they are solid and they boast the natural attacking enthusiasm that defines Martin O’Neill’s teams.

Sunderland looked out on their feet in parts against Blackburn but the return of Stephane Sessegnon from suspension will be a huge boost. He is the Mackem’s best player by a long stretch, though Fraizer Campbell, James McClean and John O’Shea have all played their part of late. Sunderland to win comfortably.

Swansea 1-2 Everton (15:00)

This is a really interesting game. Everton were just beaten by the most Swansea-esque side in the league, Arsenal, and so you would expect more of the same. Truth is Everton really competed with Arsenal who strike me as the best team in the league at the moment, and the only thing that stood between Nikica Jelavic and one or two goals was a brilliant defensive performance from start to finish.

Swansea’s midfield operates almost exactly like the Gunners’ though they are inferior both up front and at the back. They will create less chances and give more away than Arsenal did on Wednesday, and after two shambolic referee performances in a row, Everton are overdue a turn of luck.

I expect David Moyes to once again shuffle his team in preparation for the FA Cup quarter-final replay with Sunderland on Tuesday but those who come in can be just as adequate on their day.  Close game, but a spirit-raising victory for Everton in the end.

Stoke City 1-2 Manchester City (17:30)

I was all set to go for a draw here knowing how much of a performance the Stoke crowd can get out of their side during a night match at home, but then I was put in mind of that headline-grabbing fallen hero Tevez. Without meaning to come across too Ray Winstone here, you’d have to say it’s worth a punt.

Victory over Chelsea was essential and the manner of it potentially crucial. Strikers are fickle folk and the formula really is very simple: player + goals = everything’s alright. Though Tevez did not score, he did the next best thing and will reap the benefit in confidence.

I respect Stoke enough to think that they will be able to rouse themselves for a second tough fixture in a matter of days.

However, the potential combination between Tevez who will be desperate to score, and such unselfish, genius footballers as David Silva and Sergio Aguero must mean a goal is not too far away. City to nick it. Just.
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Sunday March 25, 2012

West Brom 2-2 Newcastle (16:00)

Roy Hodgson’s men have been poor of late and were fortunate not to be beaten by Wigan. They are the sort of outfit who buck up their ideas pretty quickly however so this has all the makings of a great game.

Historically, Newcastle fans have a thing for strikers. They mustn’t be able to believe their luck because now they have two of the best in the league. Both players are near faultless performers and back up clinical technical skills with hard work for the team.

If Pardew’s men defend in the same manner as their victory over Norwich, then a competent West Brom side can always take advantage. Long, Odemwingie, Ba, Cisse, Ben Arfa – there’s got to be goals. 2-2.
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Monday March 26, 2012

Manchester United 2-0 Fulham (20:00)

The key to Manchester United’s recent league success has been quite simply Wayne Rooney – he has played with the sort of ruthlessness that defines not only elite players but champions.

Last May’s Champions League final against Barcelona highlighted his evident superiority over the rest of his teammates, and his wonder goal during United’s latest Spanish humiliation at the hands of Bilbao showed that not much has changed.

The Red Devils have so much talent that all they need is a playmaker and Rooney, despite his impressive goal scoring return this year, has taken up the responsibility of that role.

Without him, the leaders would be snookered but with him, I’ll back them all the way. If City return from a tough trip to the Britannia with anything less than three points, United would be handed the perfect chance to crank up the pressure at the top. Surely Fulham despite their abundant talent will not be able to stop them.
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By Chris Smith

Part Two: Arteta’s return to Goodison – Reaction

Mikel Arteta’s return to Goodison Park was hardly the high-octane, emotional reunion it could have been as Arsenal ran out fortunate but deserved victors in a 1-0 win. Reaction to this one is multifarious to say the least, so it seems best to take it one step at a time.

First and foremost, the reception. Arteta was greeted warmly by all fans, which was pleasing – in fact it was the loudest Evertonian cheer of a quite miserable night.

Acknowledging the home supporters during the game as he was taking a corner was a nice touch from the Spaniard, so go on and prosper with our blessing Mikel, that’s the way to do it.

Next, his performance. You couldn’t fault it. Arteta moved the ball well, pivoted the play and provided an option for nearly every one of his teammates. Watching him intently in research of this post, the close analysis was thoroughly impressive.

Twice I counted more than 20 Arsenal passes from one side to the other and back again, and both times, Arteta had more than 10 touches – every other pass as he brought in the rest of the team alternately.

Control

It really was a masterclass in control though it would be disingenuous to omit mention of Everton’s lackluster showing in the first half. For the entire 45, the Toffees were sluggish, slack and downright lazy, not getting anywhere near close enough to their much more assured counterparts.

It was one of those games at Goodison where you could tell within the first few moments that we were going to concede the first goal.

And so it proved as Thomas Vermaelen rose between four Everton players to head home Robin van Persie’s corner. And though I had practically the best seat in the house to witness the Dutchman’s fantastic technical ability in swinging in the cross – sat in row 3 of the Paddock as I was – he could sod off for all I cared.

One other effect of my pitchside, Paddock location was an ability to monitor closely the performance of the linesman, as one tends to in such seats – which brings me to the game’s main talking point.

Leaving the crowd, my comment to my dad was as follows: “I really hope Moyes says something about the linesmen tonight, it really was disgraceful”. Having arrived home and switched on Match of the Day, the confirmation of that was galling.

Royston Drenthe was not one yard, but two yards onside when he scored what should have been a brilliant Arsenal-esque team goal of an equaliser. I was glad to see Moyes mention it in his post-match interview.

By his count, it was five incorrect offside decisions given against us, and that is so appallingly bad, it is actually quite suspect.

Credit where it’s due

It really is tempting to go into a big ‘officials-should-be-more-accountable’ rant now, but it seems a wiser choice editorially to give Everton some overdue credit. A fair crack of the whip from the men in black in the last two games and we could have secured a place in the Wembley vengeance-fest against Liverpool and possibly beaten an Arsenal side who fully deserve their third place in the Premier League.

In terms of the team, Jelavic was again decent but Wednesday’s performance will much more likely be filed under ‘getting there’ rather than ‘firing on all cylinders’. He went down far too easily though and that didn’t help the cause. Steven Pienaar and Leighton Baines were massively disappointing, especially the former, and for me Moyes continues to mix up Tim Cahill and Leon Osman’s roles.

Osman’s slightly more advanced position requires pace and energy whereas Cahill’s move deeper is not so much a tactical switch but an admission of age. Swap them around Davey! Osman is much more the considered technician we need to see the pass and play it; Cahill has always been about instinct and action. Ossie can’t run and Cahill ain’t savvy -play to their strengths.

The two stand-out performers were Marouane Fellaini and Sylvain Distin, the latter in particular has impressed of late.

Trawling through the internet and learning of Distin’s one-year contract renewal was really the best bit of news in a while. Even when all other 10 players have been abysmal for long spells in recent games, the Frenchman has been a figure of utter class and composure. I would quite confidently suggest that he is worth the ticket price alone at the moment.

More or less perfect

Delving back into a bit of Arsenal analysis, prevailing sentiment echoes the Arteta judgement: you just can’t fault them. The key strengths to the Gunners’ strategy – ball retention, movement off the ball, stretching the play, supporting the wingers, recycling possession – were all more or less perfect, and as for the defence, well that deserves a paragraph of its own.

Laurent Koscielny was neat, efficient – he did not switch off for a second – but in Thomas Vermaelen, Arsenal really have just the player they need. Several times, the Belgian absolutely slammed into tackles clearing out everyone in his path – nothing illegal, simply the aggressive statement of strength that Arsenal have lacked. Both full-backs also attacked and defended expertly for the entire game.

Having witnessed them in the flesh, take it from me that the statistic about Arsenal conceding just four goals in a run of six consecutive league victories is not in any way misleading. Arsenal’s defence looked so powerful, confident, switched on and cohesive that I actually felt sorry for them.

I was left in no doubt: a full-strength squad for the season and Arsenal would have been title contenders given Van Persie’s incredible goal scoring.

If the Dutchman stays next year and Arsenal maintain their first choice back five, with increased opportunities for Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and also the return of Jack Wilshere, the Gunners have the makings of a great team. Good luck to them and particularly Mr Wenger on that one, I for one will be delighted to watch.

As for the Blues, well it’s not all doom and gloom, though it may be this Saturday when we face a Swansea side in the form of a fantastic season.

The Arsenal game will have prepared the players well for the long passages they will spend chasing shadows, which a compliment to the them rather than a criticism of us.

In terms of a Moyes report: we need a few tweaks but nothing more. Everything is getting there – at the wrong time admittedly – but we competed with the best team in the league at the moment and essentially, we were robbed, and there is no shame in that.

By Chris Smith

To read ‘Part One: Arteta returns to Goodison – Preview’ click here or to return to the homepage, click here.

Premier League predictions

This week’s midweek Premier League schedule boasts four games that could have tremendous significance in both the race for the title and Champions League football.

For the first time in five months, Roberto Mancini’s Manchester City side go into a league encounter knowing not even victory is good enough to wrestle away the lead from rivals Manchester United, as his side take on Chelsea at the Etihad.

Defeat or even a draw for Tottenham at home to Stoke will incredibly leave the door open for Arsenal to take third place if Arsene Wenger’s men beat Everton away – though that’s a big if as the Toffees look to bounce back from consecutive disappointments.

The final game sees QPR face the Premier League’s best mid-table side, Liverpool. Though the Reds still hope to finish in the top four, there is a point where wishful thinking becomes completely delusory. Come on Cisse!

Last week’s score: 5 (very minor improvement)
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Barclays Premier League
Wednesday March 21, 2012

Manchester City 3-2 Chelsea (19:45)

Very interesting encounter this one, and not to mention the battle of two Robertos. Chelsea of course are rejuvenated though if you ask me, this is false. Their four consecutive victories (away at Birmingham and then home to Stoke, Napoli and Leicester) were all easily winnable games – and I suppose you would have to be honest and say Abramovic therefore changed manager at the right time.

We could very well see Carlos Tevez return to action for City and if he does, I expect a good showing from him.

All conjecture aside, he is a fantastic footballer and what’s more, a massive egotist. Offer any such player the chance to win his side the title, there’s no doubt he’ll give it a good shot.

Given a full squad for each side, this game would be decided by a simple difference: Man City are good and Chelsea are not. But with the absence of Joleon Lescott (confirmed) and Vincent Kompany (possible), Di Matteo’s side will be able to compete.
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————– Tottenham 1-1 Stoke City (19:45)

Returning to the scene of Fabrice Muamba’s shocking collapse will be a new and probably horrible experience for Spurs players.

Not to mention that Spurs all-but confirmed third position in the Premier League is now seriously under attack from in-form Arsenal.

Stoke are one of the worst sides Tottenham could face at the moment because Pulis’ men will do everything they possibly can to prevent a free-flowing game – denying Redknapp’s men the ability to play with the sort of tempo that will both free up creative players and create space.

I expect quite a poor game really – a blunt attack against a steely defence. Hard-earned away point for Stoke for me.
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————– Everton 2-1 Arsenal (20:00)

This is a huge game for both sides. Victory could give Arsenal third whilst defeat would be catastrophic for Everton leading up to the FA Cup quarter-final replay with Sunderland.

Bar the occasional absolute hammering, Everton vs Arsenal is often close. A case in point being that the sides could only be separated by a wonderful Robin van Persie volley earlier this season.

Everton’s Johnny Heitinga will come up against his Dutch international teammate. Last season, that would have caused me to shudder, but Heitinga is much-improved and I look forward to seeing him up his game in this one.

A draw seems likely but I just have a sneaking suspicion about Nikica Jelavic. His all-round play against Sunderland was really impressive.

All it lacked was a goal and even then, he was not far away. For Everton to win, he has give Arsenal’s defence a hard time from second one. I expect him to, and to be the Toffees’ match-winner.

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QPR 2-2 Liverpool (20:00)

I’d love to slag Liverpool off, and believe me I do, but to follow up consecutive Premier League defeats with a thrashing of your local rivals and victory in an FA Cup quarter-final is a fantastic response. Were Liverpool to add that trophy to this season’s Carling Cup success, that would constitute an excellent year regardless of league position.

QPR are looking desperate with such an horrific run-in, but if they can catch Liverpool cold, they may have a chance.

Dalglish’s men would be excused for being a bit off the pace, with QPR’s Premier League status massively at stake, and the Reds with only the  pointlessness of Europa League football to aim for.

Djibril Cisse will start against his former side and we know what that often means in football, but QPR’s defence has been sub-standard all year and with Liverpool’s new-found attacking impetus, there will be chances for either side. QPR to nick a goal early and hold on for the point.
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By Chris Smith

Part one: Arteta’s return to Goodison Park – Preview

Mikel Arteta’s return to Goodison Park this week will be of tremendous significance to the way in which David Moyes’ team are perceived.

To honour that as an Evertonian, I will write a two-part series specifically concerning the Arsenal game. This, the first, will take the form of a preview of Wednesday’s game – there’ll be details of the second later.

Before I get stuck in, let me give you  a bit of background. Mikel Arteta used to be my favourite Everton player – one that marked a clear departure from the doldrums of Scot Gemmill and Mark Pembridge-era football at Goodison Park.

His ball retention and dead-ball ability, along with the occasional wonder goal and most importantly, his tendency to make the opposition look foolish and often inferior, rendered him a unique weapon in Everton’s previously weak artillery.

But do not let me fool you the same way, I must inform you, you have already been fooled. Arteta’s departure from Goodison was not the widely-reported hammer blow that seems to have been taken as read.

Detrimental influence

In terms of his influence, well waning wouldn’t do it justice; if not non-existent then probably detrimental given his latter years (yes years!) were defined by a chronic inability to clear the first man.

Hand on heart, I was happy to see him go, and certainly for that price. In terms of his destination, I genuinely feared that the big stage would show him up.

Gladly, that has not been the case and I have no problem admitting that.

But as far as I’m concerned, the lynchpin to Everton’s creative dimension was always Steven Pienaar and if not him then Leon Osman.

Arteta was originally brilliant but ultimately lazy, wasteful, weak, frustrating and unreliable, and for a cynic such as this one, the cracked paint that taints a pretty picture has tainted it forever, and no amount of former glory will ever restore it.

On the subject of how the crowd should greet him, I would lend support to Ian Marshall’s call for Arteta to be given a terrific reception. I certainly hope that is the case. All the hours spent cursing his rubbish corners were, on balance, ultimately worth the screamer against Liverpool, the unbelievable 93rd minute equaliser against Manchester United and the early years when he really was fantastic.

Tremendous form

Best not to dwell on the past though so let’s shift swiftly to the present. Arsenal come to Goodison in outstanding form: five consecutive league victories, eighteen goals scored, just four conceded. To make matters worse, even if Everton manage to take the lead, Wenger’s men will remain confident having come from behind to win the last four games.

As an Arsenal sympathiser, not only have I been impressed with them, I have been delighted. On a personal level, I was really disappointed to witness Andrey Arshavin’s poor form and subsequent loan departure – he was my favourite player in the world once.

Also, Arsenal’s failure to get the fourth against AC Milan was sad to see – it was so nearly the sort of YouTube classic performance that could have single-handedly eradicated their reputation as bottlers.

The ‘one man team’ tag is a slightly false one too. Imagine Liverpool without Gerrard, Manchester United without Rooney, City without Silva.

If Arsenal are a ‘one man team’, then so are all the rest, or are Van Persie and co simply their respective teams’ best players and most consistent match-winners?

And besides, isn’t Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain already (easily) one of the best players in the Premier League?

Fantastic opportunity

Wednesday’s game couldn’t be more important. If Arsenal win, they present themselves with a fantastic opportunity, one almost unimaginable during the miserable start to the season. Win would leave Chelsea with the enviable task of requiring victory away at Manchester City to avoid being left six points behind in fifth place.

Not to mention that three points would demand a home victory against Stoke of Spurs to prevent a side whose superiority seemed not only suggested but established letting slip a 12-point gap and third place.

If the will-he-won’t-he-yes-he-obviously-will Harry Redknapp-saga effect continues and Tottenham let Arsenal overtake them, that would represent a phenomenal accomplishment for the Gunners, given they were widely tip to finish fifth whilst Spurs were touted as title candidates.

For Everton, the message couldn’t be simpler: beat Arsenal and cultivate the uniquely Evertonian momentum that just might get us through against an in-form Swansea next week and most crucially, a buoyant Sunderland in the FA Cup quarter-final replay.

All pretensions at objectivity aside, we’ve got a fantastic chance. Arsenal have been brilliant as an attacking force but despite their decent defensive record of late, they have allowed plenty of chances. And now we have Jelavic.

Duncan Ferguson

Rangers are one of my numerous second teams ever since the days of Duncan Ferguson, and to a much, much lesser extent, Ian Durrant.

That is to say I knew what we were getting when we signed the Croatian and I was delighted. Day by day since his arrival, I have suggested to my dad that we have a great player and goalscorer in our midst and Jelavic is really starting to back that up.

I’d really like to see Leon Osman played inside to match the sort of role that Arteta will play for Arsenal. Not in any way a tactic to combat the Spaniard, merely because I believe the best assets to Osman’s game (article coming soon) can be utilised this way.

A night match at Goodison against one of the top four is just about as perfect an opportunity as you could be presented with to transform what has been a miserable week for David Moyes and his men into the sort of spirit-lifting spectacle that defines his reign at Goodison.

Optimism is certainly possible: Pienaar owes us one after the derby, Baines should take it up a notch as a consequence, but more so than anything, what will have me on the edge of my seat is the new man up front.

So you two on the left, Osman and dare I tempt the most curious of fates to include Royston Drenthe, my advice is simple: just give him a decent chance.

Part two will be a reaction to the game and Arteta’s performance in particular. You can expect it early on Thursday.

By Chris Smith

5 reasons why the FA and the Premier League have devalued the FA Cup

The FA Cup has been grossly devalued in recent years and I suggest the blame lies squarely with the FA and the Premier League. From the top teams using FA Cup games as little more than reserve matches with revenue, to the glory of Wembley being diluted for semi-finals, the tournament has lost most of its splendour.

Below are the five main reasons why I blame the powers that be.

1) Semi-finals at Wembley

As a rule of thumb, semi-finals ought not be held at the same venue as the final. Not only does it cheapen the grandeur of the cup’s climax, it intensifies the significance of quarter-finals.

Not a problem you may think, but when you consider that a manager like David Moyes dropped half his team for a Merseyside derby (!) in order to achieve a false sense of glory (which a Wembley semi-final inherently is – see Bolton for details) then something is not right.

2) Rescheduled fixtures

Having mentioned Moyes, and after being so critical of him this week, I’ll give him his due now. In an  interview with the Daily Mirror earlier this week, the Everton manager blamed the Premier League for rearranging the Liverpool game so close to the quarter-final.

He is completely right. The Premier League’s decision betrays an evident lack of understanding of the demands placed on clubs at this stage of the season.

As both Everton and Liverpool are involved in the FA Cup this weekend, and the dates for the semis are set for April 14/15, it obviously makes most sense to allow both teams to concentrate on the quarters then reschedule the league match for a time in between the two.

Not to mention the fact that the Premier League’s choice of date clearly gives Sunderland and Stoke (Everton and Liverpool’s respective opponents) an advantage.

3) Timing of the fixtures

I admit this is a personal one but even so, see what you think.

Everton and Sunderland’s quarter-final was played at 12:45 on a Saturday afternoon. I could go into a lengthy diatribe here about the damaging influence of television and advertising on football, but instead, I’ll keep it short.

This was both sides’ biggest game of the season and for the FA to choose for them to play it at a time that not only requires physiological adjustment and preparation, but one that also notoriously results in the worst possible atmosphere is a real disgrace.

Is it really too much to ask for the FA to arrange a marquee fixtures specifically to create the best possible conditions for a great game?

4) Standardising the final

This year’s FA Cup final (May 5) will again be played on the same day as a Premier League game (Arsenal vs Norwich). Bearing in mind that every other team plays 24 hours later, and the fact that Tottenham are away at Villa that day, I find the decision to place Arsenal’s game on the Saturday strange to say the least.

For the sake of caution, I’m tempted to say ‘there’s probably a good reason for it’, but if I’m honest, that’s not what I think at all. Given the current FA and the apparent air-plucking that goes into decision-making, there is probably no good reason for it at all.

The energetic pre-final buzz – one of the most photographically vivid aspects of my youth as a football fan – has sadly dissipated to indifference as the showpiece of the season has become just another game.

5) Incentivisation 

The winner of the FA Cup receives £2 million and a place in the Europa League.

This fee is less than Birmingham City received last season for their final league position of 18th which as we all know, saw them relegated.

That is completely absurd. Can it really be more economically viable to get relegated than win the FA Cup?

As the honour has diminished over time (and it really has if you recall that Chelsea and Manchester City account for four of the last five winners) then further incentivisation is required.

Offer a better prize and everyone will care more, simple as that.

By Chris Smith

Follow me on Twitter@cdsmith789 or click here to return to the homepage.

FA Cup quarter-finals/ Premier League predictions

This week’s set of predictions is poignant for me given the increased importance of        Everton’s fixture. Though a 12:45 kick-off is not the ideal time, Goodison Park is just the location to restore what had been a great run of form.

David Moyes’ apparent ‘a fall comes before pride’ philosophy will forever be a black mark against in my book but he is of course the sort of manager who can channel negativity.

Moving on to a less subjective, more wide-reaching approach, victory for Manchester United at vulnerable Wolves would open up a four-point gap over Manchester City with Mancini’s men facing an arguably-rejuvenated Chelsea in their next fixture.

With the Europa League done and dusted, things are just about to get fascinating and you can bet your bottom dollar that Alex Ferguson is delighted to have the chance to apply the pressure first.

Remember to play along if you can be arsed: one point for a correct result, two for a correct score.

Last week’s score: 4 (Worst so far)

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Saturday March 17, 2012

The FA Cup quarter-finals

Everton 3-1 Sunderland (12:45)

Well if anyone read my David Moyes article from earlier this week, you will know my feelings on this on already, but just to recap: Everton absolutely must win.

The performance has to be impressive also, and with Nikica Jelavic, Royston Drenthe but most importantly, Leon Osman, returned to the line-up, I expect plenty of chances for the Blues.

Sunderland will fight because of course there is an evident spirit there but Sessegnon’s absence through suspension will be key. I think he’s a fantastic player and without his ability to link the play, I see Sunderland being penned back as Everton try to right the wrong of midweek.

Jelavic is just the sort of striker a player with Osman’s vision requires to win a game. Fingers crossed.

Tottenham 3-0 Bolton Wanderers (17:30)

Despite Harry Redknapp’s lack of post-match dignity last week, I’ll admit that Tottenham deserved to beat Everton. And though their form has been really poor of late for a team that were talked about as title candidates earlier this season, if Spurs finish third and win the FA Cup, that would constitute a brilliant season.

Redknapp is a fantastic motivator and his side have so much quality on the ball and in the box that you can only anticipate goals against an admittedly improved though still decidedly woeful Bolton defence. Pacier, quicker in the mind, and far more clinical, I think 3-0 Spurs may actually be  an underestimate.

The Barclays Premier League

Fulham 2-0 Swansea (15:00)

Martin Jol’s side missed a chance last week. Villa were there for the taking and Fulham should have advantage.

A victory would have meant the Cottagers had taken 19 points from the last 21 available; that momentum would have made the visit of a confident Swansea a lot more straight forward.

The enormity of the gulf in resources between Brendan Rodger’s team and Man City really puts that victory in context so credit where it’s due. That said, Swansea are a pretty poor away side and cannot impose themselves like they do at home.

Fulham, the archetypal home side will build up enough pressure, and with Pogrebnyak and Dempsey up front, I really look forward to watching the highlights.

Wigan 1-2 West Brom (15:00)

I would have backed Wigan for three points here if they’d have got their just desserts from the Norwich game, but that opportunity lost  is indicative of their general wastefulness/ lack of composure in front of goal. I like Martinez of course, I mean everyone likes Martinez, but I take issue with this whole he plays’ the right way’ thing people say.

As far as I see it, he plays ‘the right way’ the wrong way in that any quick-paced, slick combination of ball retention and attacking should supplement a solid defence rather than compensate for the lack of one.

Take West Brom, for example. They are unlikely to lose this game as because Roy Hodgson places so much importance on the need to maintain shape and reduce risk.

Call it safe, call it boring, I say that savvy is probably more apt. Given the bags of attacking talent in Peter Odemwingie, Shane Long and increasingly James Morrison means they have a real chance of nicking any game, so I’ll take a punt on this one.

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Sunday February 18, 2012

The FA Cup quarter-finals

Chelsea 2 -0 Leicester City (14:05)

Even though Chelsea beat Napoli convincingly in the end, I wouldn’t say that convinced me. Watching that game, I was struck by a thought that is possibly lacing the dreams of Arsenal fans everywhere: imagine if they drew Barcelona in the quarters. Genuinely, I would expect an aggregate score line of something like 10-2.

The Chelsea of old would have swept the floor with Leicester but I expect the Foxes to compete in this game. Tuesday’s 3-1 win over Birmingham was a decent result and you always have a chance when there is a striker like Beckford up front (let me just stress as an Evertonian, I mean that on a strictly novelty basis given his cup record). Chelsea’s superior ability to defend and convert chances will be the difference.

Liverpool 2-1 Stoke City (16:00)

If I am painfully honest, I’d have to say that Liverpool are probably the best English cup side. For two reasons really: firstly (and obviously), they bloody win loads of them, and secondly, because their games are always fantastic: 5-4 vs Alaves, 3-3 vs AC Milan, 3-3 vs West Ham, and obviously 2-2 vs Cardiff recently.

Liverpool excel in the cup and an away quarter-final at Anfield is as close to a write-off as they come.

I don’t particularly rate this Liverpool side at the moment, but as the general performance and productivity of the squad has improved, I have simply channeled that cynicism into Stewart Downing and Jordan Henderson comments. If Stoke can nick a goal and employ those scandalous time-wasting tactics, they have a chance of a result.

My friend Stocky told me a statistic this week that I judge meaningful enough to form the last word, so here’s doing that justice. Liverpool’s record when they have started  Gerrard, Carroll and Suarez: played three, won three, scored 11.

The Barclays Premier League

Wolves 0 -3 Manchester United (13:30)

This is quite simply one the worst possible fixtures for Terry Connor and his side. I really fell sorry for him; the transformation in mentality, belief and momentum that is required is monumental, so his current failure to effect that is hardly a fair indictment. That said, fact is the raw material of the sports journalist and to that end, Wolves are a shaken, weak and beatable team at the moment, and Manchester United, well they want to win the league.

Stung by the lesson they were given for 180 minutes of their Europa League tie with Bilbao, I expect the Old Trafford title machine to find its critical gear. Wayne Rooney’s form has been outstanding but beyond his abundant natural ability, he has shown the sort of relentless desire and clinical efficiency that defines champions. Sub-standard defence vs ruthless attack. No contest.

Newcastle 2-0 Norwich City (16:00)

Newcastle’s unfortunate defeat to Arsenal contained lots of positives, the most important of which for me was the performance of Hatem Ben Arfa. I think he has been impressive all year but of late, has begun to work harder for the team.

He strikes me as the sort of player who can create a chance out of nothing and convert it easily – a godsend of an asset when you consider Newcastle’s two brilliant strikers Ba and Cisse.

Like I said previously, Norwich deserved to be beaten last week against Wigan and as I do not rate Roberto Martinez’s side whatsoever, the Canaries must be out of form as far as I can tell. Newcastle to get back to winning ways with the three said attackers t0 dominate.

By Chris Smith

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