Premier League predictions

After previewing the next set of Premier League fixtures, the weekend can’t come fast enough for me. There are some fantastic games in store as newly-crowned Carling Cup champions Liverpool welcome Arsenal to Anfield with confidence in both camps.  Add to the bill Manchester United’s  inevitably fascinating match-up with Spurs, and a Tyne-Wear derby at St. James’ Park (take that Ashley!) in between, we have a couple of cracking Match of the Days on our hands.

My score last week was a respectable seven out of 20 – my best so far, which is quite misleading really , because obviously that sounds rubbish – it’s not even half. But keep in mind that 20 out of 20 would represent a flawlessly perfect ability to predict that would justify the most lavish and rampant gambling that I would only end up going over board and losing everything. 10 is my aim, and so seven is fine. Those that wish to, feel to comment or email your own predictions or thoughts to cdsmith1@hotmail.co.uk or via @cdsmith789 on Twitter, I think I might do some sort of article in the future along the lines of statistical analysis and bullshit. Remember, one point for a correct result, two for a correct score.

Last week’s score: 7

Saturday March 3, 2012

Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal 12:45
Liverpool deserved their Carling Cup success last week not only if you look at the balance of play during the game, but also if you take into account Kenny Dalglish’s selections and the players application throughout the competition. Most clubs tend to suffer some sort of hangover from a game like that, but I don’t see Liverpool as one of those sides – the semi-final victory against City was followed up with FA cup success over United, for example. After Arsenal’s thrilling comeback against Spurs, I expect atypically confident showing in parts but I anticipate Suarez will find a lot of space in behind, so 2-1 Liverpool for me.

Blackburn 2 – 1 Aston Villa 15:00

Darren Bent’s injury and Robbie Keane’s exit will hit Villa hard because otherwise they are pretty poor. Admittedly, they seem to perform better away from home, though Steve Kean must have pinpointed this game as a chance for victory after facing three of the top six in the last four. Yakubu needs to regain his excellent form from before his suspension in order for Rovers to stay up. Given the large-scale protest from Blackburn supporters planned for the build-up to this game, I was almost tempted to go for a draw considering the negative effect these protests have often had on results but Kean, despite his horrendous managerial record, has proven that he can get the players to respond.

Man City 4 – 0 Bolton 15:00

So predictable has an Etihad game become that even a novice such as myself has correctly predicted the scoreline of both of their last two home fixtures. The fact that Bolton were so comprehensively beaten by the worst Chelsea side in nearly a decade at its lowest ebb for probably longer affirmed my belief that Owen Coyle’s men will be relegated. David Silva’s excellent contribution to Spain’s 5-0 thrashing of Venezuela confirmed that he is regaining top form and with Aguero playing his best football for City, the title race is about to get fascinating. 4-0 is a bit of a risk, but sod being cautious, I’m on a roll!

QPR 0 – 1 Everton 15:00

As an Evertonian, I am delighted that Djibril Cisse is still suspended following his ridiculous debut red card. With Cisse’s Liverpool past…well you know how football works, don’t you? I expect QPR to perform a lot better than they did during last week’s derby defeat to Fulham. In truth, they couldn’t do much worse. For once, they need to keep their discipline to give themselves a chance. Everton will really miss Landon Donovan whose record of six assists in nine games speaks for itself. The only comparable player to the American at Goodison is Leon Osman and if, as expected, he returns to the team, I anticipate that Steven Pienaar’s presence will unburden him of the early-season pressure he felt as a result of the South African’s sale along withMikel Arteta.

Stoke 2- 1 Norwich City 15:00

I really enjoyed watching Norwich against Manchester United, particularly Grant Holt who has been in form for nearly three seasons now. Despite this, I think calls this week for an England cap were not only premature but stupid. Maybe he could have given us a bit more up front in that famous Hungary hammering of 1953, but in 2012? Come on. And I say that as a big Holt fan. I must confess my Stoke appreciation of the last few years has dwindled of late. I find them quite boring at the moment but I predict a good, attacking side like Norwich will get a decent performance out of them and they will just do enough.

West Brom 2- 1 Chelsea 15:00

In terms of an honest, interesting critique, Roy Hodgson is probably the best manager for post-match interviews. His calm and rational reactions give great insight into the way he manages to get the best out of his players. For instance, the way in which he politely condemned his players’ costly defensive lapses at home earns him the two sensational performances and victories they have had against Wolves and Sunderland. I think the game will be much like when Chelsea played Everton who had hit a similar if less spectacular run of form. West Brom to dominate, Odemwingie to score.

Wigan 0 – 2 Swansea 15:00

Wigan cannot defend and I expect them to get absolutely turned over any time soon. They are so bad that for me their presence in the Premier League serves only to offer hope to the most disconsolate of Blackburn and Bolton supporters. They will be picked off as soon as they play someone who can exploit space and individual errors, and though Swansea have only nine points from a possible 39 away from home, they can certainly do that. Although I have sympathies for Roberto Martinez who seems like a nice sort of fella if also a tactically naive manager, his best player this season has been the DW Stadium pitch so they are doomed, doomed, doomed as I see it. Swansea to play confidently and win.

Sunday March 4, 2012.

Newcastle 3- 2 Sunderland 12:00

Martin O’Neill’s side have lost momentum at  just the wrong time. A positive result against West Brom and the Black Cats would have lost only three games in 16; more pertinently however, they now come into an away derby having lost back-to-back games for the first time since the start of December. Newcastle aren’t exactly flying having let a two-goal lead slip against Wolves and shipped five the game before that. I expect a great game because both sides are as good as they have each been in years but Newcastle’s really watchable strikeforce tips it for me.Plenty of spirit and plenty of goals.

Fulham 2-1 Wolves 14: 05 (what the hell sort of kick-off time is that?)

Wolves deserve great credit for their fightback at Newcastle and if the second-half performance can serve as a minor reference for Terry Connor’s job application, then signs are encouraging. Fulham had a great win at QPR and I was personally pleased to see Martin Jol stick it to Mark Hughes whose walkout on the club I interpreted as a confession that he needs money to succeed as a manager. Clint Dempsey will be buoyed  by sealing a fantastic away victory for the United States over Italy and he will be a big factor. Wolves will battle  until the final whistle but Fulham are a compact, efficient side particularly at Craven Cottage, so a home win for me.

Tottenham 2 – 2 Manchester United 16:10 (What’s wrong with good old 16:00?)

Matches between the top five have yielded an average of 4.9 (call it 5) goals per game. Each one of these games has been so spectacularly gripping that all defensive analysis has been rendered not so much pointless but annoying. For a fleeting, ridiculous moment during last weekend’s North London derby, I honestly thought ‘Spurs can definitely get back to 4-4 here’ and within ten seconds, it was 5-2 and I’d seen another great goal. United were fortunate against Ajax and fortunate against Norwich and though De Gea has made some sensational saves of late, if you were going to base a title prediction on the goalkeepers alone, I doubt United would steal a solitary vote from City. On balance, the mass of talent on display means you have to go for goals especially considering both out of form defences. Defeat would be disastrous for either side so a draw could be on the cards on Sunday.

By Chris Smith

FA Cup Predictions

Having been away for a bit, I haven’t posted anything for a few days. What better way to get back in than the bloody FA Cup eh? Feel free to comment on any of the predictions I make, or offer predictions of your own, and look-out for an article on my visit to the Olympic Stadium in Berlin coming soon.

Last week’s score: 6

FA Cup fifth-round

Saturday February 18, 2012

Chelsea 2 – 0 Birmingham City (12:30)
Chelsea have been absolutely atrocious this season and their fans have every reason to be worried. Birmingham however have had a great year as Chris Hughton has further enhanced his good reputation. Priority may be important in this tie. Although they are still in the Champions League, the FA Cup is Chelsea’s only realistic chance of silverware for me and so I expect a decent showing. Birmingham however find themselves just two points off third place in the Championship with a game in hand, so are unlikely to favour another cup run after their own European adventure. Poor quality game I imagine, Chelsea to do enough.

Everton 2 – 0 Blackpool (15:00)
Everton have been fantastic in recent weeks and that is mainly down to the return of Steven Pienaar and Landon Donovan. The American plays his last game before heading back to the USA and so I expect another great performance. Cup-tied Pienaar’s absence will be a loss, but I expect Everton to perform well regardless. Blackpool have been great recently, and as an admirer of their side, particularly of Matt Phillips, I am glad to see them back up there. They will give a good account of themselves but a Johnny Heitinga-spearheaded Everton defence will keep them at bay.

Millwall 2 – 1 Bolton Wanderers (15:00)
I do not rate either of these sides at the moment and I expect a particularly dull game. Two consecutive defeats has somewhat derailed Bolton’s recent revival and an awkward trip to The Den is not exactly ideal for getting back on track. Millwall have been poor of late but despite that I anticipate a typically committed performance from them. They will just about deserve the win and I fancy them to nick it with a late goal.

Norwich City 3-0 Leicester City (15:00)
This game will be a real indication of how far Norwich have come. I expect them to hammer Leicester from start to finish and they will not be  flattered by this scoreline at all. Leicester have been inconsistently impressive but more consistently abject and they look devoid of the sort of spirit which is the lifeblood of Paul Lambert’s side. Norwich play some great football, their players are tremendously committed, and the Carrow Road crowd is one of the best in the league. An easy 3-0.

Sunderland 2- 1 Arsenal (17:15)
Sunderland get an immediate chance to avenge Thierry Henry’s late winner at the Stadium of Light last week, but this time they face an Arsenal side sapped of all confidence having been crushed 4-0 on Wednesday by AC Milan. Arsenal’s performance was an embarrassment that night and given Martin O’Neill’s well-reported man-management skills, I see Sunderland taking full advantage of that. If Sunderland get an early goal, there will be only one winner for me.

Sunday February 18, 2012

Crawley 1 – 2 Stoke City (12:00)
Despite Stoke’s mid-week defeat to Valencia, I anticipate Tony Pulis’ men being up for this one – not least because it was a home tie. Crawley will naturally will have a spring in their step, not just because the quarter-finals beckon but also because they are a buoyant, confident side these days. They will challenge Stoke all over the park, but Pulis will have prepared his team for this. Stoke can match anyone for work-rate on their day and will have sufficient quality in the final third to claim the victory.

Stevenage 0 – 3 Tottenham (14:00)
Tottenham are the best team to watch in the Premier League. Most people say Manchester City, but I have watched too many boring games of theirs to agree. Harry Redknnapp’s teams have always been great viewing and with the endless stream of talent at White Hart Lane, Tottenham have done their manager’s talent justice. Aside from ability, Spurs’ attitude is first-rate, they take no game lightly. Stevenage had a great win in mid-week away at Sheffield Wednesday and will prepare for the game confidently. Unfortunately for them, Spurs are just too good, simple as that.

Liverpool 3 – 1 Brighton (16:30)
After a week in which Liverpool and its staff have rightly been ridiculed, Kenny Dalglish and star striker Luis Suarez will be glad to get away from the media furore their mutually moronic behaviour caused. All that being said, Suarez is a great player and will undoubtedly score in this game. The apologies may serve to clear the air for Liverpool which could lead to the team playing with less pressure at home. If so, expect Liverpool to dominate the game over a thoroughly decent Brighton side who defeated Newcastle in the last round.

Moyes should drop old faithfuls to give the side a chance

From time to time, I scroll through various comment sections of online football articles to see what the fans really think.

In truth, I don’t ever really believe I have read ‘what the fans really think’, more often than not it amounts to little more than wild, antagonistic, reactionary outburst, and so the tedious reaction to Everton’s 1-1 away draw with Aston Villa proved.

The game featured a debut for new signing Darren Gibson – that in itself an excuse for an attack from Everton’s dissenting supporters.

In truth Gibson did fine, and so did Everton in general, with loan signing Landon Donovan influential throughout, cutting in to brilliantly lay on substitute Victor Anichebe’s equaliser.

Having been forced to give youngster Shane Duffy his first league start, confidence was restored to a depleted defence as the Irishman’s performance alongside John Heitinga was largely impressive but for a mistake for Darren Bent’s opener.

Everton were unfortunate not to take all three points after pinning Villa back for long periods, but were left to rue the predictable lack of productivity up front.

In fairness, some supporters’ comments are struck a chord with me: Everton need to immediately drop Saha and Cahill and give anyone else a chance, for it is these players who are holding us back the most right now.

For me, the difference between  the successful Everton side which qualified for Europe so consistently and the current side is that one was able to score the first goal and then defend whereas the other simply cannot take the lead.

The key is the ability to give precious little away at the back and convert one of the few chances created.

This sort of performance has been the making of Moyes and has in recent seasons showcased his team’s greatest qualities.

When Everton finished fourth, nine of their 18 victories were 1-0, and of the other nine, a further five were by one goal margins.

Which brings us back to Cahill and Saha…

Their collective failure to apply any sort of pressure to back up consistently decent possession statistics, or work that bit harder to turn a half-chance into a sitter is what is costing Everton at the moment.

After months of criticizing the midfield for the dire sideways passing which has dominated attacking output of late, it is clear now that this anti-play is inevitable when your front two are managing less than five shots a game, and appallingly, no goals a season.

Though Saha has been a changeable character throughout his time here, I have always been an unrelenting Cahill supporter; he has scored crucial goals, late goals, brilliant goals and more to the point, plenty of derby goals.

But enough is enough!

If any new signing, loan or otherwise, were to perform this poorly for so long – and that goes for any youth product or player returning from injury – they would be out of the team immediately and rightly so.

Inevitably the age-old ‘resources are thin at Goodison Park’ line will be clapped out and I understand this – as an Evertonian I even enjoy it – but the simple fact is that resources are not that thin, not by a long stretch!

I would accept that no other Everton attack is capable of completing 90 minutes, but neither are Cahill and Saha, and to be honest, they are less willing.

Anichebe, Stracqualursi, Vellios and McFadden all have fitness problems, but I put it to any Evertonian that their 20/30 minute cameos are each ten times more productive than the hour long shambles of the other two, and for the right now, they are our best options.

Any part Cahill and Saha still have to play for Everton ought to be from the bench; as reluctant as I am to admit it, they are past it.

 

By Chris Smith